I like making these. Sometimes I'm right, no promises. Anyway, things which will happen by Summer 2013. At some point along this list, the European Central Bank will start printing money and giving it to distressed Eurozone Governments, at which point the game changes and the predictions no longer apply.

Otherwise:

1) The Greek Government will fall.
2) There will be no Greek referendum.
3) There will be Greek elections.
4) New Democracy will win, but without a majority.
5) The Communist Party will double their number of MPs. The Greens will get some MPs too, and the Orthodox bunch probably more.
6) Italy will run out of money and negotiate a bailout.
7) Spain will run out of money and negotiate a bailout.
8) The capitals of the Mediterranean will burn. So will Paris, just because they like joining in.
9) A far-left terror group will execute, or come credibly close to executing, a bombing in Brussels.
10) At least two countries will leave the Euro.

I did mention, I think, once or twice, that this wasn't a very good idea.

I always enjoy the xkcd guide to making people feel old based on film release dates, but as most of you know films aren't really my thing. I wondered what it would look like made out of BBC sitcoms.



If it makes any of you feel better, as of Spring I have been alive for more than half the time since D-day.

I have done a number of things over the last few days to avoid working on my dissertation. Despite this, I have a first draft done and dusted and with my supervisor for comments. Possibly the most timewasting thing I have done is to download the software from Objectif Tarot and play a few hands of Tarot (which apparently in English is called "French Tarot"). Well, a few; 93 so far.

I'm pretty good. Most of you probably aren't familiar with the game, but in brief it's essentially contract whist with a separate suit of 21 trumps (except that, in common with Bridge and unlike contract whist, you are aiming to maximise, not satisfice - so more like Solo Whist I guess). My game turns out not to have changed since the misspent youth that made me a decent player in the first place - I'm a nearly unbeatable attacking player (of the 93 hands I have attacked in 26 and won 20 of them) but my defence leaves a lot to be desired. Life imitates art, perhaps. Also if I get the King of Clubs I am guaranteed to lose, in attack or defence, for no obvious reason, it's always been that way. It probably helps that I'm playing late in the evening when everyone else is an hour more tired than me, too.

While canonically played four-handed, like Bridge, the highest bidding player in each deal takes on the other three, meaning you don't get nonsense coded messages in the bidding process, which is what I've always hated about Bridge - though the FFT have introduced some basic 'meanings' to the first card each player plays, which has annoyed me somewhat. In the five-handed version the bidding player 'calls' a King, and the holder of that King forms a team of two against the other three - with the twist that until it is played, nobody knows who it is. If you're cocky, you can call a King in your own hand and play one against four, sowing fear and suspicion, that's always fun.

Arguably I'm better at this than I am at chess (I'm not, in truth, terribly good at chess), but I don't like the level of luck involved in card games. It's too easy to blame bad cards, rightly or wrongly. It does make me wonder, though, it's always been a pretty popular game within France, but never made the leap. I suspect the need to invest in a specific deck (the fortune telling kind is not really playable) and the fact that (unlike Bridge, in practice) a deal can result in no high bid and therefore a redeal, often a few times in a row, are responsible. Both problems the internet gets around, but it does make me wonder - there are supposedly over a quarter of a million French people in London, and as far as I can find out on the internet, nobody plays. Not even a club, never mind a league. Odd.

Early one for me, playing mainly to the early birds and the people who had stayed after the Bowie tribute band.

Flaming Lips - Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots
X Japan - Crucify My Love
Gladys Knight - The Way We Were
Propaganda - Wound In My Heart
Leo Sayer - Orchard Road
Mary Black - Past the Point of Rescue
Carpenters - It's Going to Take Some Time
Last Town Chorus - Modern Love
All Seeing I - Drive Safely Darlin'
Alison Moyet - All Cried Out
Aha - Crying In The Rain
Pulp - Styloroc (Nites of Suburbia)
Pulp - The Mark of the Devil
Pulp - She's a Lady (live version)
Suede - One Hit to the Body
Smiths - Last Night I Dreamt
Pulp - Stacks
Gin Blossoms - Follow You Down
Pet Shop Boys - What Have I Done To Deserve This
Pulp - My Lighthouse

Occasionally when we're doing something tedious in the office, usually stuffing envelopes addressed to MPs, we play the relations game. You take people you are contacting, and consider to whom they might be related. It's best to start off with something quite sedate and believable, for example;

"I wonder if Caroline Dinenage is related to Fred Dinenage?" (Answer turns out to be yes)

Then something plausible sounding but unlikely;

"I wonder if Daniel Kawczynski is related to Jarosław Kaczyński?"
"I wonder if Keith Simpson is related to Homer Simpson?"

Then all bets are off, with bonus points awarded for surrealism.

"I wonder if Mark Spencer is related to Marks and Spencer?"
"I wonder if Norman Lamb is related to a lamb?"
"I wonder if Louise Bagshawe is related to Bagpuss?"
"I wonder if John Mann is related to the Mister Men?"
"I wonder if William Hague is related to the International Criminal Court at The Hague?"

You can join in if you like. http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mps/

I write like
Mario Puzo

I Write Like by Mémoires, Mac journal software. Analyze your writing!

Blue line: Number of MPs currently representing each region
Red line: Number of MPs each region would have under the Cameron "exactly equal constituencies" proposal
Green line: Number of MPs each region would have under pure PR assuming the same votes as this time

Not brilliant but ok for freeware used by someone with no clue. Distracted me for the evening, at least. For actual talent, go here instead.

Right, I assume from the pie-related responses that everyone got it in one, but the graphs were of percentage of women in each Parliamentary party. I thought making the men blue was a big clue, I left the women as red, pink perhaps a shade too far.

Meanwhile we appear likely to end up with AV. Which has some theoretical merits although it assumes voter honesty, which we don't get under FPTP. I dislike the blandness bonus element, it tends to give an assembly of the least-hated rather than the most liked, but it's also faulty.

So for example if my friend and I, Labour supporters, live in a constituency where the results were as follows at this election: Labour 15,000, Lib Dem 9,000, Conservative 8,999, what do we do at the next election?

If everyone votes as previously, it is likely that the Conservative voters will give their second preferences to the Lib Dems, and they will win. If a small cohort of Labour voters switches to the Conservatives, they will come second, and Labour need only scoop up 20% or so of the Lib Dem votes to ensure victory.

In Brighton Pavilion, it would lead to a Labour-Green duel in the final round decided partly by, I presume, the second preferences of Liberal Democrats, but mostly by the 5th versus 6th preferences of Conservatives. If someone wants Conservative, and if not Conservative UKIP, and if not UKIP Lib Dem, and if not Lib Dem an Independent, should their further choice between two candidates they frankly detest really count for as many votes as someone's passionate first choice?

Labelling is left as an exercise for the reader.

Because I enjoy looking silly, and despite the fact that the exit polls in 15 minutes are going to be very good for the Conservatives...

A deeply hung Parliament. Conservatives literally just short of an overall majority, around the 320 seats mark (326 is an overall majority, though 323 is a functional one thanks to the absence of Sinn Fein and the neutrality of the Speaker group). Labour around 220 and Lib Dems around 90, meaning there's no yellow-red coalition on either. In my dreams, this results in Nick Clegg joining a Conservative government and the decent Lib Dems coming over to Labour. In reality I imagine it means a rubbish Tory government muddling through, in thrall to its backbenchers and the whims of Ulstermen.

We'll see how wrong I am, and I'll declare my final betting P&L, sometime over the weekend!

Hello. I shall repost this on Monday when people are reading, but anyway; for reasons wholly unrelated to the fact that I am impossible to live with (viz a new job in a different country), I will shortly be looking for a new flatmate. I'm likely, though not certain, also to want to move myself over the course of the Summer, so happy to offer a slightly lower rent to someone who is prepared to be on a month's notice, but if someone wanted to commit to a fixed term, then so could I.

That aside it would be about £700 a month including bills, for which you get a decent sized double room with loads of cupboard space in a 2-bed flat with your own bathroom, a very large living room, and a well equipped open kitchen including dishwasher and lots of freezer space.

The postcode is SE16 3TP which is Zone 2, reasonably handy for Bermondsey Tube or a range of buses, and very handy for the 1 to Waterloo / Elephant / Tottenham Court Road. What else? I'm unfussy about gender or diet, and don't mind nationality as long as people speak a reasonable level of English or, at a push, French, but I am quite fussy about keeping the flat non-smoking.

Politics intrudes. Sorry, it's that time of the election cycle. Anyway Professor Jonathan Rutherford (more of him later, but he's relevant) says the following on Labourlist today;

Whatever its current state, Labour is central to the progressive future and it needs to begin a process of democratic renewal both within its own organisation and by involving a broad range of progressive social and political movements in rebuilding a centre left coalition.

There are tens of thousands of members of the Labour Party, Green Party, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, and the SNP, along with progressive people in no party, who are prepared to discuss this kind of coalition politics. Social Democrats, Social Liberals and Greens have some fundamental political aims in common.

"After the Crash" is intended to help begin this conversation. The leading political contributors to this ebook represent different traditions, yet they share the common aim of equality. Caroline Lucas, leader of the Green Party writes: "the sustainability agenda and the equalities agenda are one and the same". Steve Webb, Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary for Work and Pensions believes that: "if society is unequal, the individual is not free". Jon Cruddas argues against sectarian politics: "It is wrong to think of socialism as a tradition that stands in opposition to liberalism."

Whatever the result of the next general election, we need to create a common ground for a progressive coalition of ideas and action. Without this coalition the political agenda will remain unchallenged and there will be no deep rooted hinterland of support to sustain a future progressive government.

‘I like to think that Conservative voters who feel there is something flakey about the Cameron-Osborne leadership might feel there is a consistency and conviction in my leadership. I do understand that they feel it’s their turn, that they feel a sense of entitlement. But what has surprised me is this ideological vacuum at the heart of the Conservatives.’

Each year, the government is borrowing £180 billion. Mr Clegg thinks that, once the economy recovers, the gap will be ‘to the tune of £80 billion or so’. So how do you fill this gap? Labour would do so with one third tax rises and two thirds cuts. The Tories would have one fifth tax rises. But Mr Clegg says the Lib Dems are the most radical of the lot: they propose no tax rises at all. ‘We’re saying “purely spending cuts”, and for a number of reasons. If you want the economy to grow, you must stimulate demand. Any economist will tell you that the best way to do this is by giving tax breaks to the people who tend to spend more of their money they receive.

Age, he claims, has taught him the point of Lady Thatcher. And, indeed, he now seems to see her as something of an inspiration. ‘I’m 43 now. I was at university at the height of the Thatcher revolution and I recognise now something I did not at the time: that her victory over a vested interest, the trade unions, was immensely significant.

The U.S. economy ceased to function this week after unexpected existential remarks by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke shocked Americans into realizing that money is, in fact, just a meaningless and intangible social construct.

Calling it "basically no more than five rectangular strips of paper," Fed chairman Ben Bernanke illustrates how much "$200" is actually worth.

What began as a routine report before the Senate Finance Committee Tuesday ended with Bernanke passionately disavowing the entire concept of currency, and negating in an instant the very foundation of the world's largest economy.

"Though raising interest rates is unlikely at the moment, the Fed will of course act appropriately if we…if we…" said Bernanke, who then paused for a moment, looked down at his prepared statement, and shook his head in utter disbelief. "You know what? It doesn't matter. None of this—this so-called 'money'—really matters at all."

"It's just an illusion," a wide-eyed Bernanke added as he removed bills from his wallet and slowly spread them out before him. "Just look at it: Meaningless pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. Worthless."

According to witnesses, Finance Committee members sat in thunderstruck silence for several moments until Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) finally shouted out, "Oh my God, he's right. It's all a mirage. All of it—the money, our whole economy—it's all a lie!"

Screams then filled the Senate Chamber as lawmakers and members of the press ran for the exits, leaving in their wake aisles littered with the remains of torn currency. U.S. markets closed as traders left their jobs and resolved for once to do or make something, anything of real value.

As news of the nation's collectively held delusion spread, the economy ground to a halt, with dumbfounded citizens everywhere walking out on their jobs as they contemplated the little green drawings of buildings and dead white men they once used to measure their adequacy and importance as human beings.

At the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday morning's opening bell echoed across a silent floor as the few traders who arrived for work out of habit looked up blankly at the meaningless scrolling numbers on the flashing screens above.

"I've spent 25 years in this room yelling 'Buy, buy! Sell, sell!' and for what?" longtime trader Michael Palermo said. "All I've done is move arbitrary designations of wealth from one column to another, wasting my life chasing this unattainable hallucination of wealth."

"What a cruel cosmic joke," he added. "I'm going home to hug my daughter."

Sources at the White House said President Obama was "still trying to get his head around all this" and was in seclusion with his coin collection, muttering "it's just metal, it's just metal" over and over again. "The president will be making a statement very soon," press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters. "At the moment, though, his mind is just too blown to comment."

A few U.S. banks have remained open, though most teller windows are unmanned due to a lack of interest in transactions involving mere scraps of paper or, worse, decimal points and computer data signifying mere scraps of paper. At a Bank of America branch in Spokane, WA, curious former customers wandered aimlessly through a large empty vault, while several would-be robbers of a Chase bank in Columbus, OH reportedly put their guns down and exited the building hand in hand with security guards, laughing over the inherent absurdity of the idea of $100 bills.

Likewise, the real estate industry has all but vanished, with mortgage lenders seeing no reason to stop people from reclaiming their foreclosed-upon homes.
"I don't even know what we were thinking in the first place," said former banker Nathan Collins of Brandon, MS, as he jimmyed open a door to allow a single mother and her five children to move back into their house. "A bunch of people sign a bunch of papers, and now this family has no place to live? That's just plain ludicrous."